No Growth
Many readers will have read this column, and seen the words ‘Transition’ and ‘Initiative’. For the benefit of new readers, this week we will try to explain what is meant by these two words and what a small group of people is doing. First, ‘Transition’ - common sense tells us that oil reserves around the world (amongst many things) will not last for ever. Common sense also tells us that the economic growth that we have enjoyed for the last 100 years cannot continue either. This growth has been due to the availability of cheap energy in the form of oil. But, the price of oil is rapidly rising as it gets harder to get from deep-sea wells, tar sands or under the polar ice. As the price of energy goes up, economic activity goes down. Many people have been borrowing money to maintain a standard of living that cannot be sustained without growth. The good growth times will likely never come again so we must stop borrowing and live with what we have. Cheap oil is a thing of the past so we must downsize our expectations.