2012-01-31 Electricity & Resilience

I have been thinking recently about how reliable our electrical power supply really is.
It started while reading the Kindle Book, “Farming 101: Transitions.” In this short novel, Gary Martens of the University of Manitoba is making a case for Natural Systems Agriculture. He does not have much success until he interjects into the plot a major, electrical power outage in the middle of winter.
The power failure embraces all of North America and the electricity simply does not come on again. And it is in that context that some enterprising farmers rediscover a more natural and sustainable way of farming.
“How ridiculous!” I hear someone say. Power always comes back on within a few hours or days at the most. But what if it didn’t? I began asking people what they would do if the power went off in mid-winter and didn’t come back on. A look of incredulity usually was followed by some statement like, “I just don’t want to go there.”
I googled for information about the massive power failure in the Eastern USA and Canada in 2003. I discovered that at least 50 million people lost power, some of them for 33 days. Reading through the government report about that event was not encouraging. It revealed dozens of weak links in the electrical grid and documented how, because of the integration of multiple systems, one part can affect another to bring down the whole. In the end the report made 46 recommendations to improve the system. Yes, forty-six.
Hmm! This led me to a book I found at the U. of M. library; “Brittle Power,” by Amory and Hunter Lovins (1982). It is a major work outlining the vulnerability of all of North America’s energy sector, including its electrical systems. They document how all the systems society depends upon for survival are vulnerable to major disruption because of internal flaws, human error, natural disasters and sabotage of various kinds.
The authors point out that because all the energy systems are so interconnected, both within each sector and with each other, it would not take much to bring down all the systems at one time.
Some people tell me to be quiet about such things. This kind of “fear-mongering” is not helpful, they say. But why was it okay to consider the fearful possibility of Winnipeg being totally flooded once in 700 years, which led to our building a massive floodway at huge expense? Just to be prepared.  But to anticipate an inevitable collapse of the electrical grid is off limits.
The Lovins leave us with something to ponder. “It is not pleasant to have in the back of one’s mind that the next time the lights blink out, they may take an exceedingly long time to come back on again (140). Personally, I think a responsible society needs to think about such things. Especially in mid-winter.
In future articles we will explore possible ways to be better prepared for major electrical outages.

--Jack Heppner