Energy Sources in a New Economy

by Gary Martens

This is the fourth column in the series “A Proposed Path to a New Energy Economy” and will focus on energy sources in a new energy economy. As indicated in the last column, our transportation sector is the one that depends on crude oil, so any reductions in our crude oil use will come primarily from the transportation sector. In Manitoba we are fortunate to have renewable energy sources like water, wind and solar providing almost all of our electricity. So, even though there are other sources of portable (transportation friendly) renewable energy like hydrogen and ethanol it makes sense in Manitoba to focus on electricity. Other renewable energy sources like biofuels and geothermal also have potential in Manitoba but are better for stationary applications.

Another method of reducing our crude oil use is to focus on increasing the efficiency of production and use. There is a downside to improving our energy use efficiency however and it is well described by Jevon’s paradox which says that as our energy efficiency increases the amount of energy we consume will go up, because it is more affordable.

In order to understand our crude oil consumption in the transportation sector I used diesel fuel as an approximation of how much trucks (for transportation of goods) and tractors in agricultural production used. I used gasoline as an approximation of personal transportation in Manitoba. It would be difficult as I said before to reduce the truck and tractor diesel fuel use except by changing the supply of goods system however it will be relatively easy to switch personal transportation from crude oil to electric which makes perfect sense in Manitoba as electricity is generated with renewable hydro, wind and solar power.

In 2015 in Manitoba we used 1.6 billion litres of gasoline and 0.8 billion litres of diesel fuel (Statistics Canada 2015). The United Nations programme working toward a better urban future estimates that urban areas use approximately 80% of the energy in an economy. Therefore, converting personal transport within urban areas is a logical and effective place to start weaning ourselves off crude oil.

According to the National Research Council of Canada the average Manitoban travels 40 kms per day and the urban dweller will probably travel less than that per day (I could only find commute times of 25 minutes for the average Canadian, not commuting distances), well within the capability of many existing electric cars. So the “low hanging fruit” in Manitoba is to switch personal urban transportation to electric power. If half of all urban car drivers switched to electric vehicles we could reduce our crude oil dependence in Manitoba by 33%.

Why do people resist the switch from gasoline to electric cars? Unfamiliar technology, higher initial investment and range anxiety would be among the most prominent. Range anxiety can be dealt with if we focus on urban cars with a known daily travel distance, higher initial investment can be dealt with by eliminating the 3.3$ billion annual subsidies to the crude oil sector, adding a carbon tax and transferring some of the subsidies to purchasers of electric vehicles.