In 2050 …. Overview 1
Friday, February 25, 2022 at 4:09PM
by George Klassen
In 2050, a 40-year-old named Sean and his young family live in a simple yet sustainable world in Steinbach, Manitoba, Canada. Sean has a full time home-based job as a local all purpose repairman, a job that he thoroughly enjoys. Sean loves to build practical items for his own children and for neighbourhood children. He also has a creative outlet as a sculptor. In addition to being with his family, Sean also has time to observe, to meditate, and to read about recent and ancient history.
Recent history was richly described to him and to his family by his mother Karen, now 70 years old, who loves to reminisce about her life, which had seen dramatic changes. Her father Martin, recently deceased, had in the 2020s become increasingly aware of climate change, an existential threat to Earth’s civilization.
As the threat had been caused mainly by the green house gases (GHGs) emitted by the burning of fossil fuels like natural gas, gasoline and diesel fuel throughout the 20th century, Martin and many others had joined an all-out effort to diminish and eventually eliminate the use of fossil fuels, using renewable energy instead. As heat for houses, fuel for vehicles, and energy and raw materials for many industries were highly dependent on fossil fuels, the conversion was dramatic and far-reaching, and took decades to complete. The transformation beginning in the 2020s was given the name Respecting Gaia, a reference to Mother Earth and its sensitive active systems that provide sustenance to its inhabitants.
Sean had completed some post-secondary education and had spent time travelling and working in various jobs. For 2 years he had worked on a vessel off the coast of British Columbia collecting plastic items which had been dumped in massive quantities in the Pacific Ocean. Not only did this improve fish habitat, it also provided raw material for producing items previously formed from petroleum.
Sean and his sister Susan and their friends are happily involved in many jobs and pursuits, including research, education, product development, renewable energy production, health care, construction, intensive agriculture, music, fabrics and clothing, and sports and recreation. Susan is a medical doctor. She is also a tree and nature enthusiast.
Housing in cities is arranged in neighbourhoods of 500 people, carefully designed to make good use of space, with mainly small multi-unit buildings. Having buildings in clusters reduces the distance to amenities. The buildings are sited to make maximum use of sunlight. They have both private areas and interior and exterior common areas. Amenities are locally available to maximize walking, cycling, and public transport and to minimize the use of personal vehicles. Public transport passes are available for the use of buses, trains, pool vehicles and bicycles.
Opportunity is given for residents to be employed in building and yard maintenance, local food production and processing, repairs and maintenance, education and child care. Local shops provide additional employment. Space and facilities are available for personal gardening, hobbies, art, music and entertainment.
All urban centres have ready access to wild areas for enjoyment and renewal. Many surrounding areas have been reclaimed and reforested. Tree planting and wetlands construction have been vigorous throughout Manitoba. This has been important for habitat, soil conservation and water retention. Trees are important for CO2 capture. The use of lumber from these trees in construction traps carbon in the long term.
Since 2025, Manitoba building codes have required that all new buildings are run completely by renewable energy and all older buildings have been retrofitted to renewable energy. Most residences, new and old, are connected to the Manitoba Hydro grid and are “zero GHG” and “net energy zero” or “net energy positive”.
Manitoba Hydro’s energy sources are diversified, including renewable energy such as wind and solar. Residents are encouraged to construct geothermal, wind and solar systems. The overall system is balanced to meet energy demands in all seasons through the use of season-to-season energy storage such as hydrogen. The system is operating seamlessly.
Stories had been told about the lavish 2020s lifestyle at the height of consumption, waste and pollution. Oil and gas companies were pushing for more and more fossil fuel collection and use. Lumber, paper companies and farmers were intent on cutting more trees, some old-growth, with no regard for plant and animal habitat, CO2 capture, and water management.
The year 2022 was the turning point towards increasingly responsible lifestyles with energy conservation and renewable energy capture, recycling or other beneficial use of all waste, and regenerative cycles.
More to follow. This column is prepared by the South Eastman Transition Initiative. Go to setimanitoba.org
Administrator
by Gary Martens
Steinbach will be substantially more populated. We are at about 19,000 people now. There are predictions that by 2050 we will be as big as Brandon; 50,000 people. That means we will have 31,000 more people in Steinbach in 2050 than we do now. At 3.1 people per house that is 10,000 more houses and apartments. Over a 28-year period (2022-2050) that is 360 more houses or apartments per year. This is an increase of 20% in new builds compared to the last two years which were at 289 and 302 new housing starts.
This expansion gives us several opportunities. What will our new houses and apartments be like? At SETI, we have repeatedly called for more energy efficient solar-ready housing. Energy prices will certainly be higher in 2050, so it makes economic sense to invest in better insulation, air-tightness and heat recovery ventilation systems.
The climate, according to Dr. Ian Mauro of the climateatlas.ca group predicts that in Steinbach we will go up from an average of 14 days above 30 degrees to 53 days above 30 degrees in 2050. Our winters will not be as cold; only minus 9 degrees average in winter compared to today’s average of minus 15. Very cold days (below minus 30 degrees) will decrease from an average 13 days now to only 1-2 days per winter in 2050. This means that heat pumps will be very effective in 2050, because they can both heat and cool. We will not need a gas furnace or electric furnace backup anymore.
Another opportunity is designing a walkable and cyclable city that is perhaps based on modules with essential service centres within each module, close to all houses and apartments. I would love to see some strictly pedestrian streets. I envision a beautiful walkway with retail businesses on both sides and living spaces above. There could be balconies overlooking the avenue and even washing hanging out, as long as it is colourful.
A city the size of Brandon needs public transport. Here is another opportunity to design a superb public transit system that does not depend on diesel buses like most cities, including Brandon currently do. The New Flyer bus company in Winnipeg already produces several styles of electric buses that are immediately available.
Let’s design our expanded city around people, not cars. Speaking of cars, there are many versions of electric cars now available. Steinbach is the perfect place to lead the electric car charge (pun intended) because we are the “automobile city”. We live in Manitoba where 97% of our electricity comes from renewable hydro sources. Most families have two cars. One of those cars could be a neighborhood electric vehicle (NEV). This is a new class of electric vehicle perfectly suited for cities where speeds are typically 50 kph or less. There are at least 10 different brands of NEVs available. One that you might recognize is the street legal version of the golf cart produced by E-Z-Go. The NEV will be a growing market in car sales and there is currently no dealership in Steinbach (hint, hint).
A great city has excellent places to live, work, shop, play and be entertained. I will leave some of the imagining to you. We now have enough evidence that our city will grow. We have an opportunity to choose the direction in which it will grow. Let’s choose well.
This column is prepared by the South Eastman Transition Initiative. Go to setimanitoba.org